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About Counties Manukau District Health Board
Our Localities
Demography
| 1.4 | < New Zealand Deprivation Index (NZDep06) |
| 1.5 |
Future population
growth The Counties Manukau population is growing around 2% per year, and this is projected to continue for the foreseeable future. This rapid growth mirrors that being experienced across the Auckland region, and places a significant load on health service provision. Overall the Counties Manukau population is expected to grow by around 9,000 residents each year for the next 20 years[3] (Table 1.20). From 2006 to 2026 the number of new residents in Counties Manukau at medium projection rates will be 177,000. This growth is the equivalent of the current population of Wellington arriving in CMDHB over the next 20 years. In absolute numbers Botany/Clevedon and Manurewa and have the highest levels of growth with 10,000 and 8,000 additional residents respectively over the next 5 years. As Botany starts from a much lower base, it has by far the greatest growth of any suburb in percentage terms. Between 2006 and 2026 Botany/Clevedon’s population is expected to more than double. This is largely driven by the development of the Flat Bush area. The other major greenfield sites at Takanini and Hingaia make smaller contributions to Papakura’s growth. While the greenfield urban area growth is the most noticeable, the larger growth is with infill and higher density housing in more established areas. Howick/Pakuranga has the lowest level of predicted growth with only 8,000 additional residents expected in the next 20 years. [3] Typically population projections by Statistics NZ, especially projections for high growth areas, tend to be conservative and actual growth rates have been higher than the medium projections in the past. Table 1.20 CMDHB Population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
MaoriCMDHB has a high number of Maori (Maaori), the most of any DHB with 76,000 in 2006, just ahead of Waikato DHB at 75,000. The number of Maaori within CMDHB are expected to grow at a similar rate to the overall population growth, with a growth of 38% over the next 20 years (Table 1.21). This will take the Maaori population from 76,000 in 2006 to over 100,000 in 2026 or ~1,400 additional Maaori every year. Manurewa, with over 20,000 Maaori, currently has the greatest number with at least 70% more than any other suburb. If growth is assumed to occur evenly across suburbs then it is also predicted to have the greatest growth in Maaori residents accounting for nearly a third of all new Maori residents in Counties each year. It is quite likely that growth will not be even however – if the trend for Maaori to move away from Mangere and Otara to Manurewa, Papakura and Franklin continues then the ~5000 growth expected for Mangere and Otara might well be re-distributed in the southern areas. Table 1.21 CMDHB Maori population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
PacificCMDHB has a very high number and proportion of Pacific people with almost twice as many Pacific peoples than any other DHB. The number of Pacific people in Counties Manukau is projected to grow at a much faster rate than the rest of the general population. There is predicted to be 58% more Pacific peoples in 2026 compared to an average of 38% for all ethnicities (Table 1.22). That is an increase from 95,000 Pacific peoples to 150,000 in 2026. Mangere is the most ‘Pacific’ suburb with the highest number, the largest future proportion of Pacific, and the largest predicted growth. Otara and Manurewa are also very Pacific neighbourhoods with high numbers and proportions of Pacific peoples and growth in residents. Growth projections by suburb are uncertain at best, but the Pacific population is expected to continue to concentrate in Otara, Mangere and Manurewa. Table 1.22 CMDHB Pacific population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
Asian The number of Asian people in Counties Manukau is predicted to grow at a much faster rate than the rest of the general population, possibly doubling by 2026. That is an increase from 73,000 Asian people to 146,000 in 2026, overtaking Maori and approaching the Pacific totals (Table 1.23). Botany/ Clevedon has the largest predicted growth, and is projected to overtake Howick/Pakuranga as the most 'Asian' suburb with the highest number of Asian by 2026. However the exact growth rates per suburb are quite speculative – as noted above individual’s decisions about where to take up residence will distort the 'aging in place' demographic projections. Table 1.23 CMDHB Asian population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
European and Other The number of European and Other people in Counties Manukau is predicted to grow at quite a modest rate compared to the other population groups, possibly only gaining 10% by 2026 (Table 1.24). The greenfields areas in Botany/ Clevedon are where the largest predicted growth is expected, while Howick/Pakuranga is expected to even decline somewhat, being ‘replaced’ by people of Asian ethnicity. It will be interesting to see whether these growth rates per suburb come to pass. Table 1.24 CMDHB European and Other population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
Growth by Age A high proportion of the growth in the CMDHB forecast for migration. This is a mixture of people from overseas as well as internal migration, and provides the most volatile portion of the population projections. Changes in migration policy or in New Zealand’s position in the world economies could have dramatic effects on these figures. During the nineties SNZ consistently underestimated the proportion of growth in Counties Manukau, and the Auckland Region generally; with the opening up of the large Flatbush subdivision there is some concern that the medium migration assumptions may be too low. CMDHB currently has the youngest population of any DHB with high numbers and proportions of child and youth and low proportions of those over 65. But as a proportion our population is getting much older. In 2006, 8.3% of our population is under 5. In 2026 this reduces to 7.4% however there is still a growth of 8,400 under 5s over the 20 years from a base of 38,000 children. An additional 24,000 children (aged 0-14) are projected by 2026 (Table 1.25), and increase of 21%. Botany/ Clevedon and Manurewa are anticipated to have the largest growth of children, while Howick/Pakuranga and Franklin are even expected to decrease slightly. Table 1.25 CMDHB child (0-14) population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
For adults the areas of largest growth are Botany/ Clevedon and Manurewa (Table 1.26). Table 1.26 CMDHB adult (15-64) population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
Those aged 65 and over rise from 8.7% of the population in 2006 to 14.6% by 2026, which equates to more than doubling from 40,000 in 2006 to 92,000 in 2026 (Table 1.27). For every 2 adults that are added to the CMDHB population there is one older adult. All areas of CMDHB show strong growth in older adults, with the highest increases projected for Botany/ Clevedon and Manurewa. Table 1.27 CMDHB older adults (age 65+) population growth 2006 to 2026 by area
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| 2. | Health Indicators/Needs > |
Published: 29-Sep-2008 | Website queries: Web Content Manager